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Correlations
BTC and Gold
Gold has served as a safe haven asset for 1000’s of years.
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BTC and Inverted US 2 Year Treasury Yield
In a risk-off environment Treasury yields drop (and hence inverted yields rise).
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BTC and USD/CNY
Weakening CNY may lead to a greater demand for capital flight from China.
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BTC and CHF/EUR
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is a safe haven currency.
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BTC and VIX
Volatility (represented by the VIX) generally increases in times of economic uncertainty.
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BTC and S&P 500
The S&P 500 generally rises as risk appetite increases.
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BTC Weekly SMAs and MACD
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BTC has kept above the 200w MA (historically an area of key long-term support) with the MACD indicating increased bullish momentum.
Bitcoin Price Action
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2020 is now currently the third worst performing year since 2013.
Bitcoin Derivative Market
The Commitment of Traders (COT) is a weekly report issued by the CFTC enumerating the holdings of participants in the Futures market. Dealer/Intermediary represents the sell side, Asset Manager/Institutional represents the buy-side.
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Dealer/intermediaries have remained unchanged in their predominantly long stance while asset managers have switched to a predominantly long stance.
Open interest shows the USD value of open contracts offered by various platforms.
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Open interest has been largely flat overall from the previous week.
Fundamentals
Google Trends - ‘Bitcoin’
Past 3 months - Worldwide
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Google searches for ‘bitcoin’ is showing early signs of an upwards trend in the last 2 weeks.
Google Trends - ‘Bitcoin halving’
Past 3 months - Worldwide
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Google searches for ‘Bitcoin halving’ reached the highest level in the 3 month period last week.
WeChat Index - ‘Bitcoin’
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Searches for ‘bitcoin’ on WeChat continues to decrease from the peak seen on 13th March.
Localbitcoins and Paxful Volume - Global
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USD volume on Localbitcoins is down 10% from the previous week.
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USD volume on Paxful is down 20% from the previous week.
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Localbitcoins has gained market share against Paxful as volume Localbitcoins now represents ~60% of the combined USD volume.
Confirmed Transactions Per Day
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Confirmed transactions are up 1.6% since last week and down 6% YTD.
Mean Transaction Value
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The mean transaction value has decreased 1% for the week but is up 13% YTD.
Bitcoin Economic Throughput
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Current economic throughput is up 10% since last week hovering around $1.78Bn USD and is up 23% YTD on the 7d MA (moving average).
Hashrate
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Bitcoin hashrate (7 day moving average) is up 7% for the week. Hashrate is up 14% YTD. It is currently at 110m TH/s on the 7 day moving average.
Daily Active Addresses
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The daily active addresses count for Bitcoin is up 4% from the last week. Daily active address count is up 18% YTD.
Bitcoin Days Destroyed
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During the last week there has not been any significant BDD activity observed.
Realised Cap
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Realised Cap (Coinmetrics, 2018) is currently standing at ~$101 Bn.
MVRV
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MVRV (Mahmudov & Puell, 2018) historically provides two important thresholds - MVRV above 3.7 could signal potential overvaluation and MVRV below 1 could signal undervaluation. The ratio ratio is currently at ~1.26.
Lightning Nodes
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The number of unique lightning nodes on the Bitcoin network is flat for the week. The number of nodes is up 9% YTD.
Lightning Channels
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The number of unique channels on the lightning network is flat for the week. The BTC capacity on the Lightning Network is up 2% for the week (total capacity is ~943. BTC).
Wrapped BTC
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The total value of Wrapped BTC is up 7% in the past week. There are now 1056 WBTC, which represents an increased interest in using BTC within the Ethereum ecosystem (and by extension DeFi).
BTC Days Since All Time High
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Spotlight
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Our Spotlight comes from Unchained Capital who wrote a thorough article called ‘21 Million is Non-Negotiable’ which explores Bitcoin’s assurances and how they directly relate to the security of the network. They write:
“Adding inflation would destroy the value proposition of bitcoin altogether by proving yet again that it’s trivial to print currency and create copies of things that are digital…”
Tweet of the Week
![Twitter avatar for @coindeskdata](https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/coindeskdata.jpg)
![Image](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_600,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FEVG1mP1UEAA2gc2.jpg)
Our ‘Tweet of the Week’ comes from CoinDesk who have released their Q1 2020 review. They provide analysis of whale and long-term holder behaviour as well as narrative shifts within the wider macro environment throughout the quarter.
![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8db0c94e-9df0-4168-9c46-7792cdbc759b_202x202.png)
About the Author
Lewis Harland is an analyst at ID Theory and is a full-time researcher of decentralised networks and cryptoassets.
ID Theory Ltd. is an Investment Advisor for cryptoasset investment fund, IDT Crypto Asset Fund Ltd.
Interested in partnering with ID Theory or building something special? Get in touch through our website or at info@idtheory.io.