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BTC and Gold
BTC and US 2 Year Treasury Yield
BTC and USD/CNY
BTC and EUR/CHF
BTC and VIX
BTC and SMAs
This week we saw the 30d MA crossing above the 90d MA. The last time this occurred was on 1st March 2019 (below) before BTC started rallying up to $14k in June.
21 March 2019
CME Futures
Sentiment has shifted somewhat this week as institutional buyers have moved back to a predominantly short stance.
Skew’s option data shows that BTC aggregated open interest is dominated by CME with Bakkt showing ~3% of SME aggregated open interest. Total options open interest for CME is currently $11m with Bakkt currently only showing ~$170k.
Fundamentals
Paxful Volume - Global
Global Paxful BTC trading volume has slowed down in recent weeks. While there is still a general upwards trend to be seen, the trading platform has failed to sustain volume momentum since Q4 last year where volume was typically range bound of $25m-$30m.
Localbitcoins - Global
Over at Localbitcoin, the global BTC trading volume continues to trend downwards since the platform implemented KYC procedures in June last year. Volume is now only 24% of its ATH seen back in Q4 2017.
Confirmed Transactions Per Day
Confirmed transactions has stayed relatively flat in the last week at ~310k transactions yesterday (down 1% for the week). Transactions per day is up 5% YTD.
Mean Transaction Value
The mean transaction value has increased 12% for the week and 63% YTD.
Bitcoin Economic Throughput
Bitcoin economic throughput is a measure of financial bandwidth per unit of time on the Bitcoin network. It is simply calculated by taking the average transaction size and multiplying it by the number of transactions.
Current economic throughput is up 11% hovering around $1.87Bn USD (up 72% YTD).
Hashrate
Bitcoin hashrate (7 day moving average) is up 6% for the week. Hashrate is up 17% YTD. Currently at 113m TH/s on the 7 day moving average.
Daily Active Addresses
The daily active addresses count for Bitcoin is down 13% from the last week. Active address count is still 4% YTD.
Bitcoin Days Destroyed
Bitcoin Days Destroyed (BDD) is an alternative metric for transaction volume on the Bitcoin network. It is calculated by taking the number of Bitcoins in a transaction and multiplying it by the number of days it has been since those coins were last spent.
During the last week there has not been any significant BDD activity observed.
MVRV
Market value to realised value (MVRV) created by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell is an alternative measure of network valuation. Instead of solely looking at market cap of Bitcoin (last traded price multiplied by coins in circulation) realised cap calculates the value of all the BTC in circulation by simply adding the market cap of the coin at the time they were last moved on the blockchain.
MVRV is simply the ratio comparing market cap and realised cap. When the MVRV is high then it might be an indication that the traded price might be above BTC’s ‘fair value’.
Historically, two important thresholds can be observed - MVRV above 3.7 could signal potential overvaluation and MVRV below 1 could signal undervaluation. The current ratio is currently at ~1.5.
Lightning Nodes
The number of unique lightning nodes with channels on the Bitcoin network has been flat for the week. The number of nodes is up 1.4% YTD.
Lightning Channels
There are 28.5k unique channels on the lightning network is increased slightly in the previous week (~1%). The BTC capacity on the Lightning Network has also increased slightly by 1% (total capacity is ~878 BTC).
Wrapped BTC
Wrapped BTC (WBTC) is an ERC20 token backed 1:1 with Bitcoin.
The total value of Wrapped BTC is up 3% at 623 BTC.
BTC Days Since All Time High
Tweet of the Week
Our ‘Tweet of the Week’ comes from Jack Dorsey (Twitter and Square) who announced that Square is developing a Lightning Development Kit (LDK) that will ultimately allow developers to integrate the lightning network into their applications and wallets in an easy way. One of the most exciting aspects of their announcement is allowing the LDK to support “multi-devices, multi-application access to one single wallet.” with the intention of reducing the burden on the end user.
About the Author
Lewis Harland is an analyst at ID Theory and is a full time researcher of decentralised networks and cryptoassets.
ID Theory Ltd. is an Investment Advisor for cryptoasset investment fund, IDT Crypto Asset Fund Ltd.
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